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30701: RE: [MUD-Dev] Casual Crowd vs.Time Rich Crowd [was: Time Debt]
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From: "Koster, Raph" <rkoster@soe.sony.com>
Newsgroups: nu.kanga.list.mud-dev
Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2004 21:47:51 -0700
Organization: Kanga.Nu
David Kennerly wrote:
> The above propositions mean that MMPs, although discouraging for
> us underdogs, are a rich get richer medium. Despite a few
> skeptical posters here, this thesis implies that, for example,
> City of Heroes will remain popular for years. Mass is a USP.
Near as I can tell from the data available, this is correct--MMOs
not only show a tendency to rich-get-richer, but also exhibit
several other network effects. For example, you can take the user
populations for various games in Bruce Woodcock's latest chart and
graph them as a bar graph, and you'll find a power law distribution.
That said, CoH isn't out of the woods yet--subscriber curves for
recent games seem to indicate a curve where the mature userbase size
isn't evident for a few months, and is typically lower than the peak
userbase size shortly after launch.
-Raph
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